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UCSF Study Predicts RN Shortfall for San Joaquin Valley

A new study from the UCSF Healthforce Center confirms what healthcare executives in HealthForce Partners have been saying: there aren’t enough nurses in the San Joaquin Valley, and the situation is getting worse, not better.

Forecasted RN Supply and Demand for the San Joaquin Valley

Source: “The San Joaquin Valley Registered Nurse Workforce: Forecasted Supply and Demand, 2016-2030,” Joanne Spetz, Janet Coffman, and Timothy Bates, Healthforce Center at UCSF, 2018.

The study, based on data from the California Board of Registered Nursing and other sources, predicts that the total number of RNs in the San Joaquin Valley will likely decline between 2017 and 2030. At the same time, demand for RNs is projected to grow more than 35%.

According to the authors, “the primary policy solution for large projected RN shortages in the San Joaquin Valley is to increase the number of graduates from education programs in the region.” The study identifies financial investment and faculty shortages as potential limiting factors.

HealthForce Partners (formerly known as the San Joaquin Area Health Sector Partnership) is already working on increasing the number of RN graduates in the Northern San Joaquin Valley. For several months, a team of leaders from healthcare, education, and workforce development has worked together in a unique partnership to draft new nursing pipeline strategies. The team will present those strategies to the partnership’s Executives Council on April 23.

For more information about the UCSF Healthforce Center’s findings, see the full report or join their April 9 webinar to discuss the results.

For more information about HealthForce Partners, please contact Executive Director, Christina Bastida at (209) 623-9907 or


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